Good stuff in Chile

In the absence of any other information on this than this article I'd say this sounds like a fine idea.

Become a multi-millionaire, buy vast amounts of land, let it return to it's natural state.

I'll try and find out if anyone at work knows any more about this. Seems like our kind of guy.

The media stirs

The BBC has picked up on the UN's decision to try and talk the Iraqi government out of changing the rules ahead of the referendum. Full story here.

Meanwhile on CNN filed in the 'other things happened in Iraq' section of this story we learn that the rule change may have happened last week.

"Parliament voted last week to change how that law would be interpreted. The new rule would require opponents to get two-thirds of registered voters to vote no, instead of two-thirds of ballots cast, the source said"

Come on guys, it's not like this happened in one of the bits of Iraq it's hard to report on. It happened in Parliament, which I'm pretty sure announces it's decisions.

Meanwhile I still don't understand why they even tried this in the first place. Most of the smart money seems to think that the Sunni will only manage a no vote in two provinces, not three. Or maybe the constitution isn't as popular as the western media have been suggesting. I have no idea.

Zimbra

Got shown the Zimbra demo at work today.

One of those web changing moments, when you see a technology and realise that you know what things are going to be looking like for the next few years.

Return of the Phantom

Despite yesterday's events in Iraq the major media outlets have spectacularly failed to cover it. Odd, since it seems to be the biggest thing to hit the country since the constitution was drafted - and that got loads of press.

Anyway, on the constitution itself I found my way to these posts by Riverbend who highlights the fact that an awful lot of the constitution is made up of grey areas.

It seems inevitable that the constitution will immediately be followed by a merger of the three Kurdish provinces (this has effectively happened already) who will then be able to produce their own constitution and raise their own army (these things have pretty much happened too). During the first round of elections in Iraq the Kurds organised a parallel referendum on independence which passed resoundingly. I wonder if they'll decide to stay inside Iraq in the near term, or immediately seek to break free and whether they'll claim Kirkuk if they do.

In exchange for not having to fight *another* war it's possible the resulting government in Baghdad might let them go, but whatever happens it's unlikely to be pretty.

The odd thing is that as far as I know a Kurdish state would be a pretty secular place - the kind of Islamic democracy that was originally envisaged for Iraq as a whole. On the other hand, it will be potentially ethnically riven depending on how the Arabs and Turkmen living in the three provinces feel about it - probably not good.

The flip side of this is the possibility of large, heavily islamic provinces emerging in the South of Iraq. These areas would come to resemble Iran, with the big losers being women, secular moderates, non-Islamic groups and perhaps most worryingly the Sunni minorities in these areas.

That leaves the rest of Iraq as Baghdad plus the Sunni provinces. A weak centre surrounded by antagonistic regions, the North having declared virtual independence and the south exercising a theocratic hold over what was once a secular city. The economy will suffer until the oil revenues start flowing creating the kind of narrow industrial base that makes elites rich and keeps the rest poor.

Not too clever really. Especially if any of these traumatic uphevals make the violence worse.

The Phantom Election

Maybe it's just me, but I've heard barely a whisper of the coming Iraqi referendum on the news. Odd, because there's a chance that the whole assembly > constitution > referendum > elections > democracy process could fall apart.

I'm going to leave that opening paragraph because I thought it was true I've just gone to check for news updates and I find this (posted about an hour ago)

I was planning to write a much longer post on this, but this kind of throws things into the air. It is in effect a coup by the Parliament against the law it operates under. Having done this, there is nothing at all to stop the Parliament passing the constitution by itself, or cancelling forthcoming elections or well anything it feels like. It's a powergrab, by which the ruling parties have pushed through their constitution in a move clearly intended to disenfranchise those opposed to it.

Now there is the point that the Parliament was elected, but Parliaments exist by the sufferance of the people and are expected to do what they're entrusted to do and no more. The Transitional Adminstrative Law deliberately kept the Parliament weak by limiting it's term (till the November elections) and it's remit (agree a constitution, reconstitute government). This certainly isn't what it was elected to do.

So what is this likely to mean for the aforementioned assembly > constitution > referendum > elections > democracy process ? My ten cents is that it makes it much less likely that the process will result in peace, or even a curtailment of the insurgency. I can't believe that there will be anything other than a boycott of the constitutional referendum in the Sunni provinces now. Their only remaining option is to deny the vote legitimacy by witholding their support. When you agree to a political process you assume that all parties will play by the rules - that seems to have gone out of the window with this.

I suspect that this sets Iraq onto a longer and darker course than it was on previously, if such a thing is possible. If the Iraqi Parliament see this through it will deepen the insurgency, providing a legitimate grievance to a vast swathe of the nation who so far have not sympathised with the armed opposition.

Take a look

There's a lot to like here

Aahhh

It's the last paragraph that scares me

The Zombies are Coming